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A WAR of words broke out last week between India and Pakistan triggered by New Delhi\u2019s belligerent statements.<\/p>\n
Threats and bellicose statements by Indian officials have continued sporadically after the four-day conflict<\/a> between India and Pakistan in May. But the spate of recent utterances by India\u2019s political and military leaders struck a more ominous note and has made the already fraught environment more tense.<\/p>\n Last week, three provocative statements from Indian officials raised the temperature between the two countries. The most egregious remarks were by the Indian army chief Upendra Dwived\u00adi, who said Pakistan will face erasure from the world map if it doesn\u2019t stop cross-border terrorism. He warned that India won\u2019t show the \u201crestraint\u201d it did during \u2018Operation Sindoor<\/a>\u2019.<\/p>\n He also said India \u201ccan cross any border whenever necessary\u201d. He asked his troops to stay in readiness as an \u201copportunity may come soon\u201d. Subsequently, India\u2019s defence minister Rajnath Singh accused Pakistan of expanding its military infrastructure in the Sir Creek sector, saying if Pakistan dared to act here \u201cthe reply will be so strong that it will change both history and geography\u201d. Sir Creek is a 96 kilometre-long tidal estuary in the Rann of Kutch, disputed by the two neighbours. It has been the subject of inconclusive negotiations over the maritime boundary, the last such talks taking place in 2012.<\/p>\n On Oct 5, India\u2019s air force chief Amar Preet Singh came up with the canard that India had shot down nine to 10 Pakistani fighter jets in the May clash, including two F-16s. He reiterated the threat that the Indian air force had \u201cthe capability to strike deep inside any of the [terrorist] hideouts [in Pakistan] with absolutely accurate targeting\u201d and could do that anytime.<\/p>\n Pakistan pulled no punches in its reaction to these statements. A statement issued after a meeting of the top military brass, presided over by army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, vowed<\/a> to give a \u201cswift retributory response\u201d to any \u201cnew normal\u201d that the Indian leadership might be conjuring up.<\/p>\n Earlier, the military\u2019s media affairs office slammed the \u201cdelusional, provocative and jingoistic\u201d statements from the highest echelons of the Indian security establishment and cast them as a \u201crenewed attempt at fabricating a pretext for aggression\u201d. The Inter-Services Public Relations statement warned any future conflict could lead to \u201ccataclysmic devastatio<\/a>n\u201d as Pakistan would respond without any restraint. Taking aim at the Indian army chief\u2019s threat, it said those talking about \u201cerasure\u201d should know \u201cthe erasure would be mutual\u201d.<\/p>\n Recent Indian statements may just be empty threats but Pakistan cannot lower its guard.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n The questions raised by the latest round of Indian threats and escalatory rhetoric are what is driving them at this point and how seriously should they be taken. One explanation of the aggressive narrative is that it is aimed at the domestic audience, especially the ruling party\u2019s Hindu base. Whipping up anti-Pakistan sentiment is a time-old tactic used by the BJP for electoral gain. With crucial state elections in Bihar drawing close and due early next year in West Bengal, the Narendra Modi government, under fire from the opposition for its conduct in the May conflict, is seeking to shore up its shaky position. This may be one aim, but not the only one.<\/p>\n The Indian establishment is still smarting from Pakistan gaining the decisive upper hand in the May conflict as epitomised by the shooting down of several Indian aircraft. Thus such rhetoric might be a way to obfuscate that outcome. But it seems more than that.<\/p>\n The reputational damage India suffered both at home and internationally has driven the motivation to avenge that loss of face. From this perspective and because Indian leaders keep hinting at another \u2018round\u2019 with Pakistan, some form of Indian incursion or aggressive action cannot be ruled out, especially as Indian leaders insist the rules of engagement and battle lines have irreversibly changed.<\/p>\n Pakistani officials do not underestimate this possibility but believe the Indians may be deterred from embarking on another adventure by calculations such as Pakistan\u2019s warnings of an even more muscular counter-response and changed regional and global dynamics.<\/p>\n\n