{"id":77455,"date":"2024-03-31T07:07:20","date_gmt":"2024-03-31T07:07:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pakistaninewspaperlist.com\/news\/pakistans-patience-is-wearing-thin-the-express-tribune\/"},"modified":"2024-03-31T07:07:20","modified_gmt":"2024-03-31T07:07:20","slug":"pakistans-patience-is-wearing-thin-the-express-tribune","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pakistaninewspaperlist.com\/news\/pakistans-patience-is-wearing-thin-the-express-tribune\/","title":{"rendered":"Pakistan’s patience is wearing thin | The Express Tribune"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

\nPUBLISHED
\nMarch 31, 2024
\n<\/span>\n<\/p>\n


\nKARACHI:
\n<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pakistan\u2019s disillusionment with the Afghan Taliban was swift, rude, and hurtful.<\/p>\n

Sept 20, 2020: Khawaja Asif celebrates the \u201cvictory of good over evil\u201d in Doha, Qatar, where Taliban and US officials sign an agreement that would a year later result in a chaotic exit of US-led NATO forces from Afghanistan. \u201cYou may have powerful militaries, but God is on our side\u2026 God is great,\u201d Asif writes on \u201cX\u201d with a photo of Taliban top negotiator Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in the Qatari capital.<\/p>\n

August 16, 2021: Imran Khan euphorically announces that the Afghans have \u2018broken the shackles of slavery\u2019 as the Taliban triumphantly enter Kabul. The confidence is so inflated that Pakistan\u2019s spy chief makes a dash to the Afghan capital less than a week after Kabul\u2019s fall. \u201cEverything will be okay,\u201d he confidently tells an anxious foreign journalist at Kabul\u2019s plush Serena hotel.<\/p>\n

But the euphoria didn\u2019t last long. The exultation evaporated quickly.<\/p>\n

The Taliban\u2019s bewildering victory rejuvenated the regional militant landscape. The TTP regrouped through a series of mergers, acquired modern weaponry, and reorganised its media and operational structures to unleash its full fury in an attempt to emulate its ideological twin. A steep rise in terrorist violence ensued in Pakistan, straining relations between the two neighbours.<\/p>\n

Fast-forward to March 28, 2024: Khawaja Asif, now defence minister, calls the Taliban-ruled Afghanistan the \u201csource of terrorism in Pakistan\u201d as he regrets \u201clack of cooperation from Kabul\u201d for tackling the terror threat. Asif\u2019s outburst was prompted by a series of major attacks in Pakistan \u2013 mostly carried out by TTP and its allies.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The air strike<\/strong><\/p>\n

Simmering tensions boiled over earlier this month when Pakistan launched precision strikes against TTP safe havens inside Afghanistan. The blitz was a reprisal to a brazen terrorist attack on an outpost of security forces in the Khadi village of Mir Ali tehsil, North Waziristan district. Seven servicemen, including two officers, were martyred in the extraordinarily large attack that involved six suicide bombers and an explosive-laden truck.<\/p>\n

A terrorist group led by Hafiz Gul Bahadur claimed credit for the assault, saying that the attackers belonged to its affiliates Jaish Umari Istishahadi Force and Jaish Fursan Mohammad. The Taliban regime in Kabul reacted angrily to the air strikes condemning them as \u201creckless\u2026 violation of Afghanistan\u2019s territory.\u201d<\/p>\n

The regime\u2019s spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, in a formal reaction reminded Pakistan of the Taliban\u2019s \u201clong experience of freedom struggle against the superpowers of the world\u201d before hurling a naked threat that \u201csuch incidents can have very bad consequences which will be out of Pakistan\u2019s control.\u201d<\/p>\n

Afghan forces \u2018retaliated\u2019 by firing mortars at the Pakistani military in Kurram district which lies opposite to Paktika province of Afghanistan. Pakistan\u2019s ambassador was also summoned to the Afghan foreign ministry where he was given a diplomatic demarche to deliver to Islamabad. \u201cMilitary violations, including those in Khost, must be prevented as such acts deteriorate relations … allowing antagonists to misuse the situation leading to undesired consequences,\u201d Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi told the envoy.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The target<\/strong><\/p>\n

The apparent trigger for the \u201cintelligence-based anti-terrorist operations inside Afghanistan\u201d was the deadly attack on the Pakistani military outpost in Mir Ali. And the \u2018prime target\u2019 was terrorists belonging to Hafiz Gul Bahadur group, which along with banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has been responsible for multiple attacks. The foreign ministry spokesperson wouldn\u2019t reveal more. Sources say that the precision strike targeted the locations of Hafiz Gul Bahadur group and TTP in the eastern Afghan provinces of Paktika and Khost.<\/p>\n

According to sources, Abdullah Shah Kakarai, alias Tobagaar, was the main target whose compound was hit in the Barmal area of Paktika. The structure was decimated, but Shah escaped unhurt because he wasn\u2019t present inside at the time of raid. Commander Hassan Gul, alias Toofan, and Commander Farman, alias Akram, were targeted in the Speira area of Khost. Another target, identified as Muaz Khan, alias Muazgai, had had a lucky escape in Paktika as the air strike against him was aborted at the last moment due to fears of collateral damage.<\/p>\n

The elusive Shah<\/strong><\/p>\n

Abdullah Shah Kakarai, belongs to Shaktoi area of South Waziristan. Shah and his brother Ehsanullah, aka Chanre Ehsan, had sided with militant commanders Baitullah Mehsud and Maulvi Nek Muhammad when the Pakistani security forces launched an operation in South Waziristan in 2004. Following the signing of Sararogha Agreement in 2005, Baitullah Mehsud handed the control of Shaktoi to Shah. Four years later, Shah and his deputy, Maulvi Zar Jan were targeted in a US drone attack in Shaktoi. Shah survived with injuries, but his deputy wasn\u2019t lucky enough. Shah, who is fond of exotic birds, always maintains a mini aviary at his house. Shah is wanted to Pakistan and has survived several attacks.<\/p>\n

Shah was lucky to have survived the precision strike, but some of his comrades were not. Among the eight fatalities in the strikes, according to reports, was Naimatullah Khan, TTP\u2019s senior military operational commander in Karachi, though the group hasn\u2019t confirmed his death.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The conundrum<\/strong><\/p>\n

The air strikes show that Pakistan\u2019s patience is wearing thin in the face of the Taliban\u2019s continued reluctance to rein in the TTP. This may not be the first time Pakistan\u2019s military has hit \u2018trans-frontier\u2019 targets in Afghanistan, but this is definitely the first time Islamabad has officially acknowledged such cross-border \u2018anti-terrorists operations\u2019. Some Afghanistan watchers believe there was no need for such an escalation as the risks involved outweighed the benefits. More so, because the main target managed to escape unhurt.<\/p>\n

\u201cPakistan risked everything in the hope of having a friendly government in Afghanistan. Throwing its lot with the Taliban, it suffered a lot \u2013 politically, diplomatically, and economically,\u201d says Rifatullah Orakzai, a senior journalist specialising in Taliban militancy. \u201cNow, we should not squander away the strategic dividend of the Afghan policy we have pursued for over four decades,\u201d he says. Orakzai believes the air strikes could be counterproductive as they might rile up anti-Pakistan sentiment in Afghanistan and help the Taliban heal internal divisions.<\/p>\n

Orakzai\u2019s fears aren\u2019t unfounded. The Taliban\u2019s archrival, Islamic State Khorasan (ISK), was quick to denounce the air strikes and warned Pakistan against \u201ckilling of innocent people and children\u201d in bombing raids inside Afghanistan. The group vowed to take revenge in a massage released through its digital propaganda channel.<\/p>\n

However, Maj Gen (retd) Inamul Haq doesn\u2019t foresee long-term implications for bilateral relations. \u201cIt\u2019s temporary escalation which will fizzle out soon. I don’t think this could make a permanent dent in our bilateral relationship, because Afghanistan is heavily reliant on Pakistan,\u201d says the retired general, who has extensively written on the subject.<\/p>\n

Inam doesn\u2019t agree Pakistan would easily give up the strategic dividend its Afghan policy has accrued. \u201cPakistan has supported the Taliban for over 20 years, how can we let go off the strategic dividend of this policy! The strategic dividend is temporarily suspended, but we would restore it in coming weeks and months,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n

The relationship is strategically important enough for either side to withstand such escalations. Efforts to de-escalate followed shortly as a high-level delegation visited Kabul and successfully ironed out contentious trade issues.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, security experts say the cross-frontier strike option should have been avoided because they fear it could set a dangerous precedent for other regional states, especially India, which, in the past, did try a cross-border military misadventure in Pakistan, with terrible results for itself, though.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The perils <\/strong><\/p>\n

Officials have repeatedly reached out to the Taliban regime and shared dossiers containing evidence of the TTP using safe havens in Afghanistan for its terror campaign in Pakistan. The Taliban first brought the TTP to the negotiating table with Pakistan and then went into outright denial about the group\u2019s presence on Afghan soil. \u201cThe Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) does not allow anyone to harm anyone’s security by using the territory of Afghanistan,\u201d the Taliban spokesman said after Pakistan\u2019s air strike. \u201cPakistan should not blame Afghanistan for the lack of control, incompetence and problems in its own territory.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pakistan carried out the air strikes after all other options, including political, diplomatic and economic, failed to soften the Taliban. Does this mean Pakistan has now dumped the policy of strategic restraint vis-\u00e0-vis Afghanistan? Or was it just a trailer for what Pakistan can do for its security interests?<\/p>\n

\u201cPakistan waited for a long time for the right response from the IEA, which wasn\u2019t forthcoming,\u201d Inam says. \u201cIn my opinion, there is an understanding on our side to calibrate the pressure. When it yields, turn down the knob, and when it doesn’t, turn up the knob. So, Pakistan will continue to calibrate its pressure in pursuance of desired results,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The million-dollar question<\/strong><\/p>\n

Why the Taliban regime is willingly risking its vital relationship with Pakistan for the TTP? Are they incapable or unwilling to challenge the TTP? Inam says they are both incapable and unwilling. Incapable, because the Taliban have prioritised a more formidable challenge, an existential threat to their regime: the ISK. And unwilling, because the camaraderie developed during the \u2018jihad\u2019 against the NATO forces is still very strong.<\/p>\n

Orakzai, meanwhile, believes there are several factors at play. \u201cThe TTP and TTA (Tehreek-e-Taliban Afghanistan) are two sides of the same coin. You cannot decouple them. They fought alongside each other in Afghanistan. In the past, TTA fighters were sheltered in the erstwhile tribal areas by the TTP,\u201d he says. \u201cTherefore, it will be unrealistic to expect the Taliban would expel the TTP from Afghanistan.\u201d<\/p>\n

The TTP had paid a heavy price for sheltering TTA fighters during the Afghan insurgency. \u201cMaulvi Faqir [then TTP deputy chief] once told me that they had lost nearly 8,000 people while harbouring the Afghan Taliban,\u201d Orakzai recalls. \u201cToday, the TTA is paying off that debt,\u201d he adds.<\/p>\n

Inam, however, says irrespective of socio-cultural, religious and ideological bonding, the realisation has finally sunk in that the TTP is a bone stuck in the throat of \u2018IEA\u2019. It is believed that the Taliban are reluctant to take action because they fear TTP fighters would switch side and join hands with ISK. Orakzai doesn\u2019t foresee this. \u201cIdeological bonding between the two is very strong. The TTP chief (Mufti Noorwali Mehsud) has sworn allegiance to Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada (Taliban spiritual leader). I don\u2019t foresee the TTP giving up TTA for ISK,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

Report has it that the Taliban are divided on the issue of TTP. The Kandahari faction, led by Defence Minister Mullah Yaqoob, considers the TTP and other foreign militant groups a liability. The Kandahari faction, from which Taliban fighters draw ideological inspirations, wants to focus on building a Shariah-based state they had promised to the Afghans. They don\u2019t owe much to the TTP because they had hidden away in Quetta, Peshawar and Karachi during the Afghan insurgency. Conversely, the Haqqani faction owes much to the TTP, which sheltered them in Pakistan\u2019s border regions where the group also found recruits for their insurgency against the NATO forces. And now, the Haqqanis are repaying that favour.<\/p>\n

Perhaps for this reason Pakistan has reached out to the Kandaharis earlier this month. The charg\u00e9 d\u2019affaires and head of mission in Kabul, Ubaid ur Rehman Nizamani, met with Kandahar Governor Mullah Muhammad Shirin Akhund, who is also deputy head of Afghan intelligence and heads the special coordination committee of Pak-Afghan affairs on March 12. A range of issues of bilateral interests were discussed, but sources say the main talking points were the TTP, Pakistan\u2019s security concerns, and the spring offensive of militants groups.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The way out<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Taliban\u2019s denial of TTP\u2019s presence on Afghan soil is an outright lie.<\/p>\n

CENTCOM chief General Michael Kurilla confirmed after the Pakistani air strikes that the Taliban are sheltering extremist groups, including the TTP. \u201cIn a classified session I can give you great detail but I would tell you that we do see the Taliban as harbouring al Qaeda, they\u2019re also harbouring Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and other violent extremist organisations,\u201d Gen Kurilla told the US Senate Arms Services Committee. \u201cThe only one that they are actively fighting is ISK.\u201d<\/p>\n

Earlier in February a UN report also endorsed Pakistan\u2019s concerns, warning that al Qaeda has established eight new training camps in Afghanistan and is increasingly assisting anti-Pakistan militants to launch cross-border attacks.<\/p>\n

\u201cBesides supplying weapons and equipment, Taliban rank and file, al Qaeda core and AQIS fighters assisted the TTP forces in cross-border attacks\u2026 Some Taliban members also joined TTP, perceiving a religious obligation to provide support,\u201d the UN Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team said in the report, adding that the Taliban have not responded to Pakistan’s repeated requests to prevent cross-border attacks.<\/p>\n

So, what do we do? Orakzai says the use of force won\u2019t work. \u201cIt would only strengthen the Taliban regime and increase support for it among Afghans. The Taliban may retaliate by giving the TTP a free rein to carry out attacks inside Pakistan while claiming \u2018plausible deniability\u2019 at the official level,\u201d he says. \u201cI think Pakistan has to keep the Taliban engaged, politically, diplomatically, and through every other possible channel to get its legit security concerns addressed.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Taliban regime would only agree to a solution which is also acceptable to the TTP because the group has become deeply embedded in Afghan society where it also increasingly recruits for its terror campaign. This is substantiated by the fact that an overwhelming majority of recent TTP attacks in Pakistan involved Afghan nationals.<\/p>\n

Conversely, Inam believes the TTP as a \u2018force in being\u2019 will become a liability as it has the potential to influence the power struggle in Afghanistan and threaten the \u2018IEA\u2019 effort to establish a control over the country. He sees the current spike in attacks as a desperate attempt by the Taliban to ratchet up pressure on Pakistan to bring it to the negotiating table with the TTP.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe should stop raising stakes, stay quiet, and hold our nerves. In the meantime, we need to consistently use all elements of national power potential: strengthen border management, step up intelligence-based operations (IBOs), carry out ruthless counterterror operations within our border, and conduct unannounced cross-border operations whenever required,\u201d says Inam. \u201cThe TTP would die its own death or become a serious challenge for the Taliban regime itself.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

(With additional input from Shahabullah Yousafzai in Peshawar)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

PUBLISHED March 31, 2024 KARACHI: Pakistan\u2019s disillusionment with the Afghan Taliban was swift, rude, and hurtful. Sept 20, 2020: Khawaja Asif celebrates the \u201cvictory of good over evil\u201d in Doha, Qatar, where Taliban and US officials sign an agreement that would a year later result in a chaotic exit of US-led NATO forces from Afghanistan. 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