{"id":66122,"date":"2024-03-01T07:53:05","date_gmt":"2024-03-01T07:53:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pakistaninewspaperlist.com\/news\/fm-101-pakistans-next-finance-minister-needs-a-vision-not-just-experience\/"},"modified":"2024-03-01T07:53:05","modified_gmt":"2024-03-01T07:53:05","slug":"fm-101-pakistans-next-finance-minister-needs-a-vision-not-just-experience","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pakistaninewspaperlist.com\/news\/fm-101-pakistans-next-finance-minister-needs-a-vision-not-just-experience\/","title":{"rendered":"FM 101: Pakistan\u2019s next finance minister needs a vision, not just experience"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<p>Will the next finance minister dare to innovate and redefine Pakistan&#8217;s economic strategy or are they going to find themselves stuck in the same old loop?<\/p>\n<div dir=\"auto\">\n<p>My grandfather used to have a yellowed old sign hanging above his office desk that read:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"blockquote-level-1\">\n<p>Weak minds talk about people;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"blockquote-level-1\">\n<p>Average minds talk about events;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"blockquote-level-1\">\n<p>Great minds talk about ideas \u2026<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>As Islamabad buzzes again with the talk of who the next finance minister will be, my thoughts keep returning to that sign. Rumour has it that Ishaq Dar is the front runner, that Dr Shamshad Akhtar remains in the running, and that various bankers and second-string politicians are dark horses.<\/p>\n<p>A candidate\u2019s closeness to a party leader gets talked up. Another is said to have the trust of Q block. A third is apparently close to the so-called establishment. Bankers\u2019 credentials and job titles are exaggerated.<\/p>\n<p>At best, three questions are posed: Will the candidate be able to work with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)? Will they be deemed acceptable by foreign powers? And will they acknowledge the future role of the military-dominated <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"link--external\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sifc.gov.pk\/\">Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC)<\/a>?<\/p>\n<h2><a id=\"we-know-the-candidates-not-their-ideas\" href=\"#we-know-the-candidates-not-their-ideas\" class=\"heading-permalink\" aria-hidden=\"true\" title=\"Permalink\"\/>We know the candidates, not their ideas<\/h2>\n<p>In all this chatter about people, there is no discussion about their ideas. We specifically fail to inquire: what distinct policy strategies do these people propose to fix the mess we\u2019re in?<\/p>\n<p>Since answers aren\u2019t forthcoming, let\u2019s ask a different question: what would an ideal Pakistani finance minister do?<\/p>\n<figure class=\"media  w-full  w-full  media--stretch  media--embed  media--uneven\">\n<p>    <iframe class=\"nk-iframe\" onload=\"setInterval(()=&gt;{try{this.style.height=this.contentWindow.document.body.scrollHeight+'px';}catch{}}, 100)\" width=\"100%\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" style=\"height:400px;position:relative\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dawn.com\/news\/card\/1759674\" sandbox=\"allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-popups allow-modals allow-forms\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<p>As always, our next finance minister will realise that we owe more money than we have. It\u2019s the same problem our last minister and the ones before him faced. So, our minister will have to enter into negotiations with the IMF and beseech countries on friendly terms with Pakistan for more loans and rollovers.<\/p>\n<p>There is little agency in the matter; the only difference between the candidates is that some may do it quietly and promptly, while others would do it loudly and drag their feet; some might receive a warm hug at foreign airports, and others a handshake and a nod before getting down to business. They would all have to make more or less the same requests and would receive similar deals because they\u2019d all represent exactly the same problems back home.<\/p>\n<h2><a id=\"imfs-blueprint-for-pakistan\" href=\"#imfs-blueprint-for-pakistan\" class=\"heading-permalink\" aria-hidden=\"true\" title=\"Permalink\"\/>IMF\u2019s blueprint for Pakistan<\/h2>\n<p>Bilateral negotiations are hidden from public view, yet the IMF\u2019s demands have been openly documented for decades. In short, the Fund wants us to spend less and tax more (preferably from non-filers) to create space to pay our debt; to maintain a market-determined exchange rate so we don\u2019t import more than we export; to keep interest rates higher than inflation, so we don\u2019t prioritise consumption over investments; and to begin addressing long-standing issues such as our energy and State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) losses.<\/p>\n<p>This is an eminently rational agenda. If anything, it falls short in its recommendations \u2014 particularly overlooking key determinants of long-term productivity such as <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"link--external\" href=\"https:\/\/unesdoc.unesco.org\/ark:\/48223\/pf0000178719\">education, trade competitiveness, and governance<\/a> \u2014 areas where a finance minister should at least play a role in planning.<\/p>\n<p>It is in following the Fund\u2019s advice that we might think our ministerial candidates will start diverging. Our candidates clearly differ in their willingness to pursue even this minimal agenda. Some want the funds but openly resist even fundamental reforms. Others acknowledge the validity of the prescription, at least in private if not in public.<br \/>\nBut in reality, how differently would they act?<\/p>\n<h2><a id=\"about-time-we-embrace-change\" href=\"#about-time-we-embrace-change\" class=\"heading-permalink\" aria-hidden=\"true\" title=\"Permalink\"\/>About time we embrace change<\/h2>\n<p>When change finally comes \u2014 when we start going after non-filers and power thieves, withdraw uneven tax exemptions and subsidies, shutter loss-making public companies, and reduce loans from banks and anyone else who\u2019ll lend to us \u2014 that change will not be ordered from a finance minister\u2019s desk. It will be announced by a prime minister who risks their political capital for the country, and with the support of the country\u2019s institutions.<\/p>\n<p>From voices in the finance ministry to the political, business, media and military elite, there is a resistance to change and experimentation that has proven remarkably unwavering even as the country has suffered an acute and sustained economic crisis.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis is no time to experiment,\u201d I have heard every year through 20 years of sustained decline. We need a steady hand. Experience. Whatever we do, we have to keep the dollar and policy rates as low as we can. Pakistan cannot be run like other countries we are told, or \u2014 as it appears \u2014 by logic.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"media  w-full  w-full  media--stretch  media--embed  media--uneven\">\n<p>    <iframe class=\"nk-iframe\" onload=\"setInterval(()=&gt;{try{this.style.height=this.contentWindow.document.body.scrollHeight+'px';}catch{}}, 100)\" width=\"100%\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" style=\"height:400px;position:relative\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dawn.com\/news\/card\/1805989\" sandbox=\"allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-popups allow-modals allow-forms\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<p>And so we stick with the same people making the same decisions that we have ample evidence have failed us previously. It continues to elude us, for example, that short-term efforts to keep the dollar cheap are a major reason the dollar has become so expensive in the long run.<\/p>\n<p>It has been more than a decade since the idea of a <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"link--external\" href=\"https:\/\/pakistan.fes.de\/e\/charter-of-the-economy\">Charter of Economy<\/a> was first floated; six years since a new government went to the IMF in crisis; two years since another government went to the IMF again; and eight months since the last loan helped Pakistan narrowly avert default, yet again.<\/p>\n<p>We have, in this time, resolved to try nothing new.<\/p>\n<h2><a id=\"it-really-isnt-that-complicated\" href=\"#it-really-isnt-that-complicated\" class=\"heading-permalink\" aria-hidden=\"true\" title=\"Permalink\"\/>It really isn\u2019t that complicated<\/h2>\n<p>A good finance minister candidate would be able to articulate by now what has gone wrong; would have public views about which redundant ministries or SOEs we need to shutter first and which untaxed sectors we need to raise revenues from this year. They would also have ideas about the seismic shifts in our industrial, banking, and corporate terrain that must come with reform.<\/p>\n<p>The right person would present a five-year roadmap, be honest with us about the pain that inevitably looms, but reassure us by showing us how Pakistan can do things better from now on.<\/p>\n<p>Instead, the conversation has reduced to whether the minister will tighten the budget this year, hike interest rates this quarter, raise energy bills this summer, and suppress the dollar for now. And so, some of our candidates are polishing personal brands and inviting us to join their cults. Trust him, not her, and vice versa. The conversation ends there.<\/p>\n<p>Until the talk about finance and the economy shifts from people to ideas, we are unlikely to see better days.<\/p>\n<hr\/>\n<p><em>Header image created with AI<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Will the next finance minister dare to innovate and redefine Pakistan&#8217;s economic strategy or are they going to find themselves stuck in the same old loop? My grandfather used to have a yellowed old sign hanging above his office desk that read: Weak minds talk about people; Average minds talk about events; Great minds talk [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":66123,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"fifu_image_url":"https:\/\/i.dawn.com\/large\/2024\/02\/29000020328a48b.jpg?r=000033","fifu_image_alt":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[192],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-66122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-islamabad-news"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/pakistaninewspaperlist.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66122","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/pakistaninewspaperlist.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/pakistaninewspaperlist.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pakistaninewspaperlist.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pakistaninewspaperlist.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66122"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/pakistaninewspaperlist.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66122\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pakistaninewspaperlist.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66123"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/pakistaninewspaperlist.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66122"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pakistaninewspaperlist.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66122"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/pakistaninewspaperlist.com\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66122"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}